 |
| Ed Whitlock ran a 2:54 marathon at age 73, and a 3:56 at 85. |
Many Lifetime Runners are
accustomed to evaluating their race times with the widely-used and excellent World Masters Association age-graded system.
There are many versions of this calculator around the web, and they are
sometimes included in computerized road-race results.
There is another
less-well-known system, created by Ray Fair, a retired Yale University
economist who has run 39 of 41 New Haven 20K road races, missing the event only
when ill or injured. Fair, 75, recently updated his system--an update covered by the New York Times.
An abstract of his new paper, published by The Review of Economics and
Statistics, is available here.
The Fair system differs
little from the WMA calculator--it’s just a matter of how deep
the mathematics go--as both are based on the same data: the single-age road records maintained by the Association of Road Race Statisticians.
the mathematics go--as both are based on the same data: the single-age road records maintained by the Association of Road Race Statisticians.
However, Fair’s approach
makes it easier to “visualize” your future running self. You can look at his
aging factors, from age 40 to age 95, and see how much slower you’ll be at any
age and every distance. (Fair finds no reason to distinguish between rate of 5K
slowing and rate of marathon slowing, as they’re virtually the same. Until there's data to indicate otherwise, the Fair calculator also assumes that women will slow at the same rate/year as men.)
The Fair calculator is particularly useful if you want to determine where you will be in a few years. Let's assume you're 66 and curious about your chances to kick butt when you hit 70, your next age group. Just input your current time and age, and you'll receive your equivalent time at 70. Warning: You'll have to maintain your current training.
Here’s the Ray Fair calculator page, and just below, you can see what it looks like. You will quickly note its simplicity. Simply input a time (no distance required),
and the age when you achieved that time. The Calculator will return your
equivalent times for every age from 40 to 95.
The Calculator page also provides all the Ray Fair age factors, which we have reproduced below. Fair believes there is no performance loss to age 35, and only a 1 percent loss from age 35 to 39.
AGE FACTOR
40 1.0000
41 1.0099
42 1.0199
43 1.0299
44 1.0401
45 1.0504
46 1.0607
47 1.0712
48 1.0818
49 1.0925
50 1.1033
51 1.1142
52 1.1252
53 1.1363
54 1.1475
55 1.1588
56 1.1703
57 1.1818
58 1.1935
59 1.2053
60 1.2172
61 1.2292
62 1.2414
64 1.2660
65 1.2785
66 1.2911
67 1.3039
68 1.3168
69 1.3298
70 1.3429
71 1.3562
72 1.3696
73 1.3831
74 1.3968
75 1.4106
76 1.4245
77 1.4386
78 1.4532
79 1.4733
80 1.5004
81 1.5347
82 1.5769
83 1.6274
84 1.6870
85 1.7565
86 1.8371
87 1.9300
88 2.0365
89 2.1585
90 2.2981
91 2.4575
92 2.6397
93 2.8480
94 3.0865
95 3.3598